Swing Trade Entry Strategy (Using Long Uptrend Lines)
- Chart Setup:
- Use maximum monthly chart to trace long-term support lines.
- Use maximum daily chart to analyze price action for entry and exit.
- Support Line Selection:
- Trace lines through obvious lows.
- Favor lines with multiple touch points (2+).
- Color-code lines to distinguish potential entry zones.
Entry Timing:
- Wait for price to pull back to support line.
- Look for at least 3 higher lows after the pullback.
- Buy at the first or second green bar following the last higher low.
- Risk Management:
- No stop-loss used; rely on quality of stock.
- Accept unrealized losses during pullbacks.
- Strategy may require holding for 6–12 months.
Swing Trade Exit Strategy
- Three Exit Strategies:
- First Strategy: Sell at the next all-time high.
- Second Strategy: Use historical patterns to estimate how long the stock might rise (e.g., previous 1.5-year uptrend).
- Third Strategy: Quantify exit price using ratio:
- Example: If previous high was $312 and support line was $114 → ratio = 2.7.
- Multiply ratio by current support level (e.g., 2.7 × $142 = $383 target).
Case Studies
- M.A.R. (Marriott):
- Bought at $244 in March.
- Current price: $260 → ~$19–$20 profit/share.
- Still near support line; not a buy today due to lack of uptrend.
- M.A.N.H.:
- Bought at $173 in March.
- Current price: ~$197 → ~$20 profit/share.
- Still near support line; not a buy today due to no clear uptrend.
- M.A. (Mastercard):
- Last trade: Bought at $522 in Dec 2024, sold at $542 in Jan 2025 → $300 profit.
- Currently observing; not a buy today due to unclear valley/support line.
Tips for Small Accounts
- Start with 1 share per stock to test strategy.
- Avoid tying up all capital in one stock.
- Use low-fee brokers (e.g., Charles Schwab) to minimize cost.
- Stretch capital across multiple stocks for flexibility.
Conclusion: Swing trading entry and exit strategy using long up trend lines for timing
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