Stock Analysis (11-20-25)
PCAR, PG
What makes a swing trading setup worth watching
General Strategy
- Focus on upward-trending large-cap stocks.
- Use support lines (valley points on the chart) to identify potential entry points.
- Rely on price action and chart patterns, no indicators.
- Confirm long-term trends using daily and monthly charts.
Entry Strategy
- Draw support lines through valleys where price has bounced multiple times.
- Wait for confirmation: price pulls back to support and forms higher lows.
- Enter after 1–2 green bars following a pullback.
- Avoid early entries; observe if price lingers near support.
Exit Strategy
- Time-Based Exit
- Estimate how long price may climb after reaching a new high (e.g., 6–12 months).
- Set a time frame to sell after the first new high.
- Price Ratio Exit
- Calculate ratio between support price and previous high.
- Use ratio to set target sell price (e.g., support × 2 = target).
Portfolio Management
- Avoid selling at a loss; hold until price recovers.
- Track entry prices and compare with current price.
- Use spreadsheet notes with dates to track decisions.
Watchlist Strategy
- Maintain a master list of compatible stocks.
- Create a shorter version for regular analysis.
- Replace incompatible stocks annually.
- Familiarity with stocks improves confidence and decision-making.
Swing Trading Tips
- Start small and customize strategy to personality and risk tolerance.
- Save consistently to invest when stocks are well-positioned.
- Swing trading supports financial independence when done patiently.
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